Melnikov V.V. Development of the construction complex of the Russian Federation under sanctions

Abstract

The authors of this study examine the impact of international sanctions on the con-struction sector of the Russian Federation, revealing a complex interplay between external pressures and internal adaptation, each of which shapes the trajectory of the industry’s development in both explicit and nuanced ways. The analysis identifies “sanctions-induced transformation” as a central theme, where supply chain reconfiguration and the pursuit of “technological sovereignty” become key responses to the challenges imposed by geopolitical isolation; however, these adaptive strategies, while contributing to resilience, also expose the industry to new forms of vulnerability, creating a duality that requires careful consideration. The notion of “material autarky” is introduced to describe the shift towards domestic production required in response to import disruptions, but this shift, while potentially stabilizing in the short term, carries the risk of technological stagnation, highlighting the delicate balance between self-sufficiency and innovation. The study further explores the concept of ‘differentiated market recovery’, highlighting the uneven recovery rates of different segments of the construction market, with infrastructure projects likely to lead the way with government support, while residential construction remains constrained by financial constraints. The results of the study are summarized as recommendations for public and private organizations: public organizations are encouraged to focus on “regulatory coherence” and “strategic diversification”, ensuring effective government support for sector recovery and mitigating risks associated with technological obsolescence; private organizations are encouraged to adopt a strategy of “cautious expansion”, aligning investments with government-supported segments and engaging in “collaborative innovation”; and private organizations are encouraged to adopt a “cautious expansion” strategy, aligning investments with government-supported segments and engaging in “collaborative innovation”. Ultimately, the study argues the need for a nuanced understanding of the future of the construction sector, where a tangled web of ‘semantic links’ between risks and opportunities must be carefully navigated to achieve sustainable growth in the post-sanctions economic order.